Asphalt market is not off-season
2024-06-06 11:43
The fundamentals of the domestic asphalt market are not weak in the off-season, especially in the Shandong market. Under the low operating rates and inventory indicators of local refineries, spot prices have remained firm, and there has been no rapid decline in the past season after entering the off-season. The main reason is that after the rapid rise in the price of heavy raw materials, asphalt is in a seasonal off-season, and the profit contraction of refineries is earlier than the same period in history, especially after considering the consumption tax payment coefficient.
First of all, the supply of heavy crude oil is tight, and the profit of refineries has contracted. After March, the international crude oil market is under pressure to slow down the growth of U.S. shale oil, and the United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. The index of sweet and sour oil in the Bay Area has continued to narrow. As one of the main raw materials for domestic asphalt production, Venezuelan heavy crude oil premiums strengthened, reflecting the market's expectation of heavy crude oil tightness, raising the production cost at the refinery end.
Second, the supply of raw materials is guaranteed in April and May. The domestic situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate. The main crude oil export port, JoseTerminal, was closed for a time. EnergyAspects lowered its March Venezuela crude oil production forecast to 500,000 barrels per day. As a local refinery in China that uses Venezuela's heavy crude oil to produce asphalt, the operating rate is low after entering 2019, and the cumulative growth rate from January to February was 17%, which is much lower than the 98% of Venezuelan crude oil imports from January to February. The growth rate, it is estimated that some domestic Venezuelan heavy crude oil inventories should be generated.
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